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While the PC market reaches the bottom of its growth pattern, and excess
inventories have been reduced to provide a stabilising influence,
research predicts that the equipment markets are likely to begin their
recovery no sooner than Q4 of this year.
The study, carried out
by market research company Gartner, cautions that uncertainty still
lingers as to the effectiveness of government stimulus packages and
macroeconomic recovery, citing the latest macroeconomic forecasts and
industry supply and inventory patterns. Data indicates that almost all
sectors of the electronic equipment market are still declining.
Klaus Rinnen and Jim Tully, Gartner analysts, wrote in the company’s
Semiconductor DQ Monday Report: "Markets must hit bottom before we see a
rebound to positive growth.
"The bottoming of PC-related
production is breathing the first signs of hope into the electronics
supply chain. Still, the majority of the industry will not bottom until
the third quarter of 2009.”
According to the analysts,
while the first signs of growth will be the seasonal buying patterns in
the PC market during Q4, overall sustainable growth could be pushed well
into 2011, with sectors outside the PC market showing slow growth in
2010, the first sector of prominence likely to be mobile phones.
"While the emerging supply chain will be leaner and stronger, it will
look different,” Tully and Rinnen said. “Awareness of risk both up and
down the supply chain is a must for industry players to maximize their
opportunities."